Showing posts with label asset allocation *the right way*. Show all posts
Showing posts with label asset allocation *the right way*. Show all posts

Monday, October 1, 2007

Retiree Portfolio Update

As of today, the total NAV for the Retiree Portfolio has exceeded the 10% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) that was my goal for this year. I nearly can't contain the excitement over reaching this goal early. Come to think of it, this was achieved despite the following:

- Not all of the Retiree's assets were fully allocated to their targets. 8% of total assets are still parked in our temporary "holding" fund, Wellington, which has returned 9.27% YTD-- not shabby at all for a lil' 60/40 well-blended, almost-no-cost fund. 21% of the portfolio sits in very un-sexy, low-class money market funds.

- By the same token, the above funds were to be used to fill out the remaining portions of the ideal asset allocation mix. I'd accomplish this by completing the Int'l funds allocation. Unfortunately, Int'l has climbed since I last checked in and decided to buy in next time a day crash happens. No crash has happened since this point in time, while Asia and Europe have both been zooming upwards.

- Almost 2% of the gain to 10% CAGR came in the form of a decent-sized chunk of corporate dividends.

- Bond funds have *really* kicked into high gear these past couple of months, while equities have tempered a bit.

Obviously, there's another quarter left before all this is over, and a good portion of these gains could vanish from a freak October market crash, or something equally bad. It remains to be seen by year-end what the final CAGR is. I'm surprised, if anything, because I firmly believed it would be a very challenging and difficult goal to reach.

Friday, March 30, 2007

The Retiree Portfolio - Location Review

One slight problem with the previous allocation is that the retiree historically prefers making, at minimum, an annual contribution into the Roth IRA account. Now, ideally, the next best place for contribution is the traditional IRA, but it seldom occurs. Whatever fund I put into the Roth IRA must be one whose allocation in the total Retiree Portfolio can increase, even slightly skewed from the original percentages, without veering too far from the general objective for the portfolio.

REIT would not be a good choice-- REIT's are recommended to only occupy 10% of the *equity* portion of an S&D portfolio.

VISVX (small value) could be a good choice-- for someone much younger than the retiree, like, say, me for instance. Inflating VISVX's share in the portfolio introduces more volatility risk.

Which leads me to the next best two choices: VTSMX (total US market) or VGTSX (total international). To me, VGTSX seems to be the better of the two choices. Why? I don't doubt that the ratio of international equities will increase in the face of US domestic equities considering the free market international trade occurring nowadays. Short of world courts coming down hard on alleged unfair Chinese government subsidization of imports and reversing the ballooning trade deficit (the largest single-country deficit ever in US history), curtailing dollar devaluation, and the like, international will only grow in proportion, with possible temporary hiccups, for the coming years.

Without further ado, here's the updated equity allocation scenario:

VTSMX - 25% - 100% (25% allocation of total portfolio) into the taxable account.
VISVX - 5% - 100% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the traditional IRA account.
VGTSX - 25% - 60% (15% allocation of total portfolio) into the taxable account, 20% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the Roth IRA account, the remainder 20% (5% allocation of total portfolio) in the traditional IRA account.
REIT - 5% (I *might* eliminate. Need further analysis.) - 100% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the traditional IRA account.

Thursday, March 29, 2007

The Retiree Portfolio- Execution

Today, in the traditional IRA account, I displaced VWELX positions to build up the fixed-income allocations for the Retiree Portfolio:

VBMFX - 13.3%
VFSTX - 13.3%
VBISX - 13.3%

As of today, VTSMX position is now up to 16% in the taxable mutual fund account.

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Retiree Portfolio Next Step: Location

The Retiree whose Retiree Portfolio I'm helping construct owns the following types of long-term investment accounts:

56% of the assets are in a traditional IRA account.
4% of the assets are in a 2006-contributed Roth IRA.
The remaining 40% of ther assets are in a taxable account.

With that being said, the Retiree Portfolio's asset location is envisioned as follows:

VTSMX - 25% - 100% (25% allocation of total portfolio) into the taxable account.
VISVX - 5% - 100% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the traditional IRA account.
VGTSX - 25% - 60% (15% allocation of total portfolio) into the trad. IRA account, the remaining 40% (10% allocation of total portfolio) into the taxable account.
REIT - 5% (I *might* eliminate. Need further analysis.) - 100% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the Roth IRA account.

The majority of fixed-income assets will be placed in the traditional IRA account.
VBMFX - 13.3%
VFSTX - 13.3%
VBISX - 13.3%

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Last night, in the Retiree Portfolio's taxable account, I executed yet another order to exchange from the Prime Money Market Fund into VTSMX, further advancing their eventual VTSMX position defined above by 20%. To date, that means 16% of the total Retiree Portfolio is now in VTSMX. I'll continue flushing out the remaining 9% VTSMX position very soon.

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After some thinking, here's an asset location update for The Retiree Portfolio:

VTSMX - 25% - 100% (25% allocation of total portfolio) into the taxable account.
VISVX - 5% - 100% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the traditional IRA account.
VGTSX - 25% - 60% (15% allocation of total portfolio) into the trad. IRA account, the remaining 40% (10% allocation of total portfolio) into the taxable account.
REIT - 5% (I *might* eliminate. Need further analysis.) - 100% (5% allocation of total portfolio) into the Roth IRA account.

The majority of fixed-income assets will be placed in the traditional IRA account.
VBMFX - 13.3%
VFSTX - 13.3%
VBISX - 13.3%

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

Mixing Passive- and Active-Managed Funds

My coworker posed the following question today:

"If one already owns a total market fund, why buy Wellington?"

OK-- this question might be completely oversimplistic. We need to understand what sometimes turns out to be a complex web of circumstances that would whittle this question down and give it more relevancy.

So, first of all: colleague and I had began reading up on various investment strategies and, at one point in time, I thought we were largely on the same page. Lately, I've noticed he's focusing questions on stock picks, which, I have to be honest with you, Dear Colleauge, it's already challenging enough defining our own core portfolio, let alone be worried about something that's infinitely more complex than asset allocation (with few exceptions).

We were relatively debt-ridden at the time. Now, what are we taught to correctly do with debt? Yes, pay it down first before anything else. We've been dealing with that ever since.

Colleague is starting their savings from scratch. Colleague is in their late-20's to early 30's.

Colleague has previously expressed keeping their core portfolio simple, containing at most 2-3 core funds. These would include a total market fund, a fixed-income fund, and something else. Hopefully, Colleague sticks with this.

Now, Colleague and I have previously reviewed various Vanguard funds, one such being Wellington. Wellington's attraction stems from its built-in equity to fixed-income ratio (roughly 60/40), its value tilt, a factor which has commanded a return premium over the years, its proven ability to ride out the most recent bear market, 2000-2002, without significant value decreases, its high dividend rate for investors interested in and income fund, its classification as a balanced fund, and, most importantly, its extremely low expense ratio, practically unheard of for being an active-managed mutual fund.

Wellington sounds like it *might* be for an aggressive retiree due to its aggressive value tilt, equity allocation, while providing income in the form of dividends.

If someone *only* owned a Total Market fund in their portfolio, they're viewed as very young, with many years of life and career (which will mean a long series of contributions ahead of them), and very aggressive, without the need for dividends.

I had the Retiree Portfolio often discussed in this blog temporarily park a significant portion of assets in the Wellington fund when I was unable to expeditiously define the asset allocation because of the following characteristics: its one-stop solution, its AA mix, its blend, along with its superior handling of market downturns.

A hypothetical 50/50 mix of Total Market fund / Wellington would exhibit the following characteristics:

Stock Style Diversification

31 31 20
5 4 4
2 2 2


0 100 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

Considering this mix, the only issue I see is that the portfolio's equity portion seems tilted towards large-cap with little exposure to mid and small-cap positions for an early saver. Also, there doesn't seem to be much diversification with the fixed-income portion: it's 100% intermediate-term. However, everything else seems OK: it's balanced, it's blended, and the fixed-income durations don't go beyond intermediate-terms.

So, not a bad mix, depending on an individual's needs and goals.

Monday, March 26, 2007

RETIREE PORTFOLIO DRAFT #2

After some consideration, Draft #1 was seen as "a bit too aggressive" for a portfolio aimed to generate and maintain income, quell volatility, reduce risk, and introduce value stabilization by *some* S&D and diversification (yet not be aggressively eager about this), while simultaneously being SIMPLE and ELEGANT.

In fact, I'm shifting the focus of the porfolio composition from a multi-asset S&D (slice and dice) makeup into a portfolio that consists of 3 core holdings, with some smaller side dishes. The 3 core holdings are VTSMX, VGTSX, and... um, fixed-income positions of some form.

The 60/40 equity/fixed-income makeup is still maintained.

I still plan to divide the equity allocation into 50/50 domestic/international. Here's where I disagree with critics of my portfolio, who believe that I'm internationally over-weighted. My rationale is I want my portfolio to reflect the WAP (world allocation portfolio) and the global economic integration that's steadily increased over the past many years.

To address all these points, I might eliminate the following assets:

- REITs
- Int'l small-cap stocks
- Emerging market stocks

I'm also reducing positions in the following:
- Domestic value stocks
- Possibly the high-yield corporate bonds

When taking into account all of these factors, here's Draft #2, showing the direction the retiree's portfolio is heading:


VTSMX - 25%
VISVX - 5%
VGTSX - 25% (Total International Fund)
REIT - 5% (Again, I *might* eliminate. Need further analysis.)

VBMFX - 13.3%
VFSTX - 13.3%
VBISX - 13.3%

Morningstar's X-Ray provided the following asset breakdown for the Draft #2 portfolio:

Asset Allocation

Portfolio
Cash 3.04
U.S. Stocks 34.70
Foreign Stocks 24.35
Bonds 37.20
Other 0.71
Not Classified 0.00


Stock Style Diversification



25 26 19
10 7 4
5 3 1

Not Classified 0.00%



65 35 0
0 0 0
0 0 0

Not Classified 0.00%

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Investment Professional Opines about ETF's

One of the few financial professionals I genuinely respect, Rick Ferri, gave Maria Bartiroma same face time on CNBC. Click here for his take on the recent ETF explosion.

Aside: I interviewed at Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA) today. Strange how everything seems to be a series of coincidence: I've commonly read about them in my research. DFA is only one of a handful of firms where the remainder of the elite group of financial professionals and scholars I truly admire formed and are currently changing the way investing should happen (they only manage some of the largest pension funds in the US-- which are far larger than any individual mutual funds and other offerings). I only wished my recruiter didn't pressure me to go in while I was still suffering from my cold because my first impression wasn't definitely the best. I guess we'll see what happens next week.

Friday, February 16, 2007

that retiree's portfolio update (also, where's my own portfolio?)

Some of you may wonder if I've been dangling the carrot regarding my explanation for the strategy and, ultimately, the implementation of my test-lab retiree's portfolio. Here's my excuse.

I've been frantically trying to wrap up my research so that I'll finally devise and implement a strategy for my guinea-pig retiree and for my own portfolio. Unfortunately, January + February of this year weren't exactly the freest of months, due to a few calamities, a few celebrations, and everything else going on.

Anyhoo, I'm falling behind because of circumstances and incomplete research. Even so, portfolio construction isn't exactly a task to take lightly, especially since, once it's constructed, like time, there really is no turning back.

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I'm testing the waters with the NetWorthIQ sidebar but don't think there's much value in it, let alone feel confident in its accuracy and ease of maintenance. I could imagine people using it for bragging rights. I guess I'm ultimately looking for a portfolio tracker "RSS feed" driven by any one of the popular investing websites. If you know of any to recommend, please comment.

Monday, February 5, 2007

a not-so-brief introduction of my investing history

There are many ways to gauge one’s life. Two of the most popular ways to assess the quality of one’s life is usually either by the amount of happiness, or the amount of money—or both.

A good majority of us yearns to become as rich as possible, as quickly as possible. I’m certain that’s why some of you stumbled here—looking for how you can be rich like those guys on late-night infomercials who guarantees it in 30 days, or your money back.

Since I’m nowhere near being qualified as a psychiatrist or a self-esteem coach, I’m of no use there, so therefore—well, no, I’m not nearly as qualified being a financial adviser or a CFA either, really. But, I wasn’t intending this blog to be a psychological / emotional advice column. Well, alright, I'll help out if I can.

Meanwhile, I’ve been “investing” for the last 15 years in one form or another. The majority of my investing can be considered pop or voodoo investing, really. Call it gambling. Seriously, some experts go so far to actually call it “pornographic.” Investing = pornography?

A little investing / finance background of me:

I opened my first mutual fund account at Coast Federal Bank roughly 15 years ago. Later on, Coast Federal was bought out by Home Savings who was ultimately purchased by Washington Mutual. I remembered we bought B-class shares of-- whatever fund it was. The "broker agent" just seemed like such a nice fellow, indeed. He exhibited *much* more skill and knowledge than anyone in my family-- how could we simpletons know any better than a full-time money-managin’ dude?

Since savings account rates were barely 2% back in those days, I started socking money away into what I thought was the safest investment vehicle at the time, CD's (certificate of deposit). They returned about 2.1% or so. To diversify by intending to experience dramatic capital growth, I subsequently discovered "growth" mutual funds. MANY years later would I realize there was almost no "growth" in "growth" funds-- that account balance only grew because of the one right thing I did: DCA (dollar cost averaging). From mutual funds, I tried my chops, well very little of it really, in the ridiculous dotcom tech-wreck (after I got out of college). Once the glamour of that turned into gloom, back into mutual funds I went, still with Washington Mutual.

Let’s pause for a moment: did I know what I was doing? No, my gut feeling told me I didn’t. My brain agreed with my gut: I *knew* I didn’t. My problem was I didn’t know *how to invest correctly short of working on Wall Street.* OK, let’s proceed.

Getting slightly desperate as I was turning into a thirty-something, I scammed myself into some investment newsletter promising at least 25% CAGR, whose subscription was one of the most regretful big-purchase mistakes I've ever made. Yes, there were some other stupid big-$$$ screw-ups I made, which I’ll disclose maybe some other time. It’s truly depressing to think of how I actually *could* be halfway to being a millionaire by now. Would’ve, should’ve, could’ve. I digress.

As I was contemplating subscribing, my gut feeling told me the newsletter was a sham. However, let’s deny gut feeling even though, well, more often than not, Mr. Gut Feeling was totally on the dot.

Boy, did the newsletter-owners take me to the-- brokerage account! Not only did I lose the $300+ in purchasing the subscription, I lost significant money on the investments themselves. Good thing the authors let me know about the foreign tax withholding on dividends, too. Their answer: a one-line description of an easy-to-complete federal tax form. I'm sure it'd come as no surprise to you that this easy-to-complete form turned out to be, well, not really that simple.

Let’s not forget that one reassuring sales-pitch popular among newsletter-authors: “I’m invested in the same stocks that I’m picking for you, so you’ll be assured that we’re in this together!” The problem is, how credible is the proof? A webpage with dollar figures divvied up among stocks—with pretty pie charts, lots of commas and digits? Hold on tight, because I’ll make myself a millionaire in 5 minutes, too!

So while I’m being dumped gruel onto my dish for my main investment vehicles, all along my side appetizers of stock gambling was a total wash as well.

The final chapter of my pornographic investment history was when I opened up my own business. My CPA helped establish my SEP IRA and steered me towards the American Funds family. A remarkable event, indeed: it was the first time I witnessed considerable equity growth. Only then, did I know for sure my calculator was working, because my calculations equaled to what the statements were showing. Maybe my CPA is onto something…

I almost forgot about my real estate antics.

True to my former self of "buying high, selling low, and ditch any great opportunity", I jumped onto the real estate bandwagon very recently. I eschewed a Rowland Heights rental property in 2002-2003 for a mere sum of $90,000, which I'm confident is now worth north of $500,000 today. But later on, I purchased my own condo in downtown Long Beach, CA back in the latter-half of 2005, right when word of the housing bubble peaking began gathering steam. See what I mean? You'd think by now I'd learned my lesson about "buying low, selling high." Then, halfway through 2006, I entered my first foray in income properties with a four-plex in Texas.

Since then, I sold off my condo in late 2006 with a surprising gain (it was a surprise since I didn’t expect *any* gain at all), and the four-plex is treating me quite well. I guess the condo sale was one relieving outcome, and a highly motivated one, after looking around me and noticing listings being active and revised downwards for 6 months or even longer for comparable properties.

So, that's my wobbly road to non-riches in a nutshell. For those of us whose main job or career doesn't have anything to do with finances or investing, we tend to think of finance and investments as the stuff of weird-math nerds and multi-trillion-dollar big-money firms, or something equivalent to black magic. There's too much static out there, and we could care less, as long as our savings comes out ahead tomorrow vs. today. So, why don't we just “set and forget” our investments: toss the keys to our retirement to a skilled CFA or broker?

I’d say this is a good point to stop and draw the line in the sand. I’m done with investing blindly. I’ll stick with regular pornography for now. And now, a cliché: a new leaf is being turned.

Only within the last year or so have I stumbled upon some ideas that, although the returns seem meager at face value, may ultimately end up be a worthy lifelong strategy.

Before creating this blog, I've spent some time scouring the Web for other people’s personal experiences and anecdotes applying investment principles. Sure, I've seen some "projected portfolios", and some over-the-top macroeconomic analysis and websites. Other websites I've seen contain seldom-updated, extremely vague personal diaries written by other confused people trying to find the ultimate investing solution, or displaying their account balances but leaving the audience to wonder precisely how it was executed, what their positions are. And yet others simply RSS a quote ticker. Greeeaaat.

Of all the research I’ve done, only one website displayed a real-time, running counter of that person’s asset portfolio by simply multiplying asset units with unit value. Neat.

Confused about finance and investing, like I’ll admit I have been? I'll attempt to simplify and demystify it. Here is where you’ll find epic tales of missed opportunities, lessons learned, some projects and ideas, strategies, and true dollar figures—both mine and the people in my life.

I like to think of myself as always being a humble student of the infinite wisdom of finance and investing. Even more so, I have absolutely no interest to be condescending or arrogantly presumptuous to fellow investors, conveying any notion that *you* need a course from *me* because I know just slightly, but not thoroughly, more than you do. My approach is to explain strategies, execution steps, my reasonings, and engage in conversation with you (or maybe just myself, I guess) about what I've done. I'll leave the "courses" to the "experts."

I cater to no special interest (except to retire sooner myself), and am only funded by myself in this venture. Other than the funds my parents used to raise me from infant to teenager (such as bailing out of jail), I never freely took a monetary obligation without paying it back. I think. Eh, well, if any friends of mine are reading this and I haven’t paid you back, let me know. Pronto.

The strategies I'll employ require no exorbitant minimum starting balance, or options exclusively for the privileged or truly loaded. I'm as average Joe as they come: I was born with a plastic-vs.-a-silver spoon from a Gerber's bottle, I laugh at any possibility of an inheritance or becoming an estate recipient, and, at least for this lifetime, I can never claim TFB status.

I'm starting small, so if you follow my progress and mistakes, you'll be able to see how I'm rewarded and punished, what challenges I face. Stats and numbers I’ll post serve not only to feed my selfish exhibitionist qualities, but also to backtrack past projections and outlook.

Lastly, some of you readers are my friends. You may find me anonymously referring to past experiences which I may tie together with my own knowledge and experience. I’m sure I already have everyone’s consent in doing so.